Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +9.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Necas on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Necas wins 42.0% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Necas 41.9% vs Dowd 50.7% (-9.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Necas 87.8%
Defensive zone
Dowd 93.3%
Neutral zone
Dowd 72.1%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 54.9%
45.1%
54.9%
Necas
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Necas
Dowd
Last 9: Necas 5-4 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Necas
4
0
Necas
Dowd
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
4
Necas
Dowd
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Necas
1
0
Necas
Dowd
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Necas
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
40.7% (797)
52.4% (6,009)
-11.7%
Power Play
40.0% (135)
56.1% (164)
-16.1%
Penalty Kill
54.1% (37)
44.1% (1,635)
+10.0%
On power play, Dowd has a +16.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Necas is 42.0% vs right-shot opponents (226).
Necas shoots right. Dowd is 51.2% vs right-shot opponents (2,675).
Home / Away
Necas
Dowd
Home
39.2% (492)
51.9% (3,897)
Away
43.0% (477)
49.5% (3,912)
By Period
Necas
Dowd
P1
39.9%
51.7%
P2
40.6%
50.4%
P3
43.3%
50.3%
OT
41.7%
45.9%
Final 5 min
42.7%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Necas
36.0%▼
38.0%
41.1%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2024 | 3 | 08:57 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 1 | 19:58 | Offensive | Martin Necas |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 3 | 14:15 | Offensive | Martin Necas |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 2 | 11:46 | Offensive | Martin Necas |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 1 | 01:17 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 5, 2024 | 3 | 11:14 | Offensive | Martin Necas |
| Dec 17, 2023 | 1 | 16:29 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 18, 2022 | 1 | 02:59 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 28, 2019 | 1 | 10:28 | Neutral | Martin Necas |