Scouting Report
Alex Turcotte holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Turcotte on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Turcotte wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — McTavish shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Turcotte 53.2% vs McTavish 49.1% (+4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Turcotte 53.8%
Defensive zone
Turcotte 62.1%
Neutral zone
Turcotte 54.1%
Result
Alex Turcotte favored at 55.6%
55.6%
44.4%
Turcotte
McTavish
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Turcotte
McTavish
Last 5: Turcotte 3-2 McTavish
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Turcotte
1
0
Turcotte
McTavish
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McTavish
0
1
Turcotte
McTavish
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Turcotte
2
1
Turcotte
McTavish
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Turcotte
McTavish
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (460)
47.6% (615)
+5.9%
Power Play
70.0% (10)
57.8% (102)
+12.2%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
33.3% (6)
+66.7%
On penalty kill, Turcotte has a +66.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McTavish shoots left. Turcotte is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (302).
Turcotte shoots left. McTavish is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (468).
Home / Away
Turcotte
McTavish
Home
53.2% (263)
52.3% (388)
Away
54.8% (208)
45.1% (335)
By Period
Turcotte
McTavish
P1
57.0%
50.2%
P2
59.6%
47.9%
P3
44.1%
49.0%
Final 5 min
52.6%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Turcotte
38.0%▼
52.5%
53.9%
McTavish
48.0%▲
45.5%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 17:58 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 15:18 | Neutral | Alex Turcotte |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 08:18 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 18:58 | Offensive | Alex Turcotte |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 05:14 | Neutral | Alex Turcotte |