Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.7% vs 49.9%). Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McTavish 50.6% vs Stamkos 49.9% (+0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 66.7%
Defensive zone
McTavish 69.3%
Neutral zone
McTavish 55.2%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 55.1%
44.9%
55.1%
McTavish
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
McTavish
Stamkos
Last 5: McTavish 2-3 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
3
McTavish
Stamkos
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McTavish
1
0
McTavish
Stamkos
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McTavish
1
0
McTavish
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McTavish
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (769)
49.3% (670)
+1.8%
Power Play
50.6% (178)
53.7% (121)
-3.1%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (14)
33.3% (3)
-4.7%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +4.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. McTavish is 52.4% vs right-shot opponents (296).
McTavish shoots left. Stamkos is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (610).
Home / Away
McTavish
Stamkos
Home
52.3% (461)
54.0% (400)
Away
49.2% (500)
45.7% (394)
By Period
McTavish
Stamkos
P1
51.5%
48.6%
P2
54.0%
54.5%
P3
47.1%
45.4%
OT
50.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
51.1%
46.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McTavish
46.0%▬
45.5%
50.7%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2025 | 3 | 05:33 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 1 | 05:21 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 3 | 19:00 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 2 | 13:23 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 1 | 19:13 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |