Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Barzal wins 46.0% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 46.9% vs Backlund 50.5% (-4.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barzal 84.8%
Defensive zone
Barzal 68.9%
Neutral zone
Barzal 74.6%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 72.5%
72.5%
27.5%
Barzal
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
7
(8 meetings)
1
7
Barzal
Backlund
Last 8: Barzal 1-7 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
3
Barzal
Backlund
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
4
Barzal
Backlund
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
46.6% (483)
51.5% (983)
-4.9%
Power Play
40.9% (22)
49.4% (87)
-8.5%
On power play, Backlund has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Barzal is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (385).
Barzal shoots right. Backlund is 49.5% vs right-shot opponents (487).
Home / Away
Barzal
Backlund
Home
49.6% (242)
51.6% (653)
Away
43.3% (263)
49.3% (576)
By Period
Barzal
Backlund
P1
42.4%
50.0%
P2
49.5%
49.8%
P3
47.7%
51.7%
OT
0.0%
53.3%
Final 5 min
40.2%
50.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
46.3%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 12, 2022 | 3 | 08:00 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Feb 12, 2022 | 2 | 12:01 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 12, 2022 | 1 | 07:58 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 12, 2022 | 1 | 04:02 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 3 | 11:49 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 3 | 02:37 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 2 | 02:11 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |