Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +9.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Barzal on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Barzal wins 38.9% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 41.4% vs Backlund 49.7% (-9.9%)
H2H factor
Barzal leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Barzal 67.3%
Defensive zone
Backlund 87.2%
Neutral zone
Backlund 68.5%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 56.3%
43.7%
56.3%
Barzal
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
6
(13 meetings)
7
6
Barzal
Backlund
Last 10: Barzal 5-5 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
5
1
Barzal
Backlund
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
3
Barzal
Backlund
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Barzal
Backlund
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
40.4% (463)
50.1% (891)
-9.7%
Power Play
34.2% (38)
53.1% (64)
-18.9%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (7)
47.8% (278)
-19.2%
On penalty kill, Backlund has a +19.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Barzal is 38.9% vs left-shot opponents (393).
Barzal shoots right. Backlund is 49.2% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Home / Away
Barzal
Backlund
Home
38.1% (244)
48.1% (580)
Away
41.3% (264)
51.1% (653)
By Period
Barzal
Backlund
P1
46.6%
45.1%
P2
35.7%
54.7%
P3
37.7%
49.0%
OT
0.0%
46.2%
Final 5 min
40.5%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
39.8%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 18:11 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 16:20 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 13:13 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 06:30 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 18:38 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 18:26 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 12:21 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 04:11 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 1 | 16:59 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 1 | 07:50 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |