Scouting Report
Nick Bonino holds a +8.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Barzal on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 12 meetings). Barzal wins 41.9% vs left-shot opponents — Bonino shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 42.2% vs Bonino 50.0% (-8.0%)
H2H factor
Barzal leads 13-8 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
Bonino 58.8%
Defensive zone
Bonino 91.8%
Neutral zone
Bonino 82.9%
Result
Nick Bonino favored at 70.0%
30.0%
70.0%
Barzal
Bonino
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
8
(21 meetings)
13
8
Barzal
Bonino
Last 10: Barzal 7-3 Bonino
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
8
4
Barzal
Bonino
12 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Barzal
Bonino
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Barzal
4
3
Barzal
Bonino
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Bonino
Edge
Even Strength
41.9% (3,558)
50.6% (8,315)
-8.7%
Power Play
43.4% (205)
54.1% (972)
-10.7%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (26)
44.6% (1,693)
-2.3%
On power play, Bonino has a +10.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bonino shoots left. Barzal is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,695).
Barzal shoots right. Bonino is 51.4% vs right-shot opponents (4,070).
Home / Away
Barzal
Bonino
Home
43.1% (1,893)
51.2% (5,507)
Away
40.9% (1,896)
48.8% (5,480)
By Period
Barzal
Bonino
P1
40.6%
50.6%
P2
44.4%
48.5%
P3
41.0%
51.1%
OT
27.6%
45.7%
Final 5 min
39.9%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
40.0%▼
44.5%
42.0%
Bonino
46.0%▼
47.5%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2022 | 3 | 17:34 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 2 | 06:46 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Feb 24, 2022 | 2 | 16:31 | Neutral | Nick Bonino |
| Feb 24, 2022 | 1 | 14:56 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 2 | 18:16 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Feb 13, 2020 | 3 | 07:05 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Feb 13, 2020 | 3 | 00:20 | Offensive | Nick Bonino |
| Feb 13, 2020 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Feb 13, 2020 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Feb 13, 2020 | 1 | 13:33 | Neutral | Nick Bonino |
| Dec 17, 2019 | 2 | 11:32 | Offensive | Nick Bonino |
| Dec 17, 2019 | 2 | 03:08 | Offensive | Nick Bonino |
| Oct 6, 2018 | 3 | 19:40 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 6, 2018 | 3 | 18:39 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| Oct 6, 2018 | 3 | 00:52 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 6, 2018 | 2 | 18:36 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 6, 2018 | 2 | 03:08 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Feb 5, 2018 | OT | 02:54 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Feb 5, 2018 | 2 | 15:54 | Offensive | Nick Bonino |
| Feb 5, 2018 | 2 | 12:57 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |