Scouting Report
Nick Bonino holds a +10.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Barzal on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Barzal wins 38.1% vs left-shot opponents — Bonino shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 42.8% vs Bonino 51.6% (-10.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bonino 58.4%
Defensive zone
Bonino 92.1%
Neutral zone
Bonino 85.5%
Result
Nick Bonino favored at 65.2%
34.8%
65.2%
Barzal
Bonino
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Barzal
Bonino
Last 5: Barzal 4-1 Bonino
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
4
0
Barzal
Bonino
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bonino
0
1
Barzal
Bonino
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Bonino
Edge
Even Strength
41.9% (516)
52.6% (836)
-10.7%
Power Play
40.0% (60)
51.8% (110)
-11.8%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (4)
47.8% (186)
-22.8%
On penalty kill, Bonino has a +22.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bonino shoots left. Barzal is 38.1% vs left-shot opponents (407).
Barzal shoots right. Bonino is 53.4% vs right-shot opponents (476).
Home / Away
Barzal
Bonino
Home
46.9% (303)
50.8% (547)
Away
35.7% (277)
52.6% (585)
By Period
Barzal
Bonino
P1
39.9%
56.2%
P2
45.1%
48.9%
P3
39.9%
50.9%
OT
33.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
38.5%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
41.6%
Bonino
46.0%▼
47.5%
51.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2018 | 3 | 19:40 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 6, 2018 | 3 | 18:39 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| Oct 6, 2018 | 3 | 00:52 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 6, 2018 | 2 | 18:36 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 6, 2018 | 2 | 03:08 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |