Scouting Report
Nolan Patrick holds a +9.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Barzal on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 10 meetings). Barzal wins 37.7% vs right-shot opponents — Patrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 44.9% vs Patrick 52.1% (-9.2%)
H2H factor
Barzal leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Patrick 56.1%
Defensive zone
Patrick 82.1%
Neutral zone
Patrick 75.6%
Result
Nolan Patrick favored at 73.8%
26.2%
73.8%
Barzal
Patrick
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
4
(11 meetings)
7
4
Barzal
Patrick
Last 10: Barzal 7-3 Patrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
1
0
Barzal
Patrick
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Barzal
6
4
Barzal
Patrick
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Patrick
Edge
Even Strength
43.3% (314)
51.2% (371)
-7.9%
Power Play
45.5% (33)
62.2% (37)
-16.7%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (3)
59.1% (22)
-25.8%
On penalty kill, Patrick has a +25.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Patrick shoots right. Barzal is 37.7% vs right-shot opponents (146).
Barzal shoots right. Patrick is 54.8% vs right-shot opponents (188).
Home / Away
Barzal
Patrick
Home
39.9% (168)
48.5% (231)
Away
46.7% (182)
57.3% (199)
By Period
Barzal
Patrick
P1
39.0%
52.0%
P2
49.1%
52.3%
P3
43.3%
53.2%
OT
25.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
30.5%
56.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
43.4%
Patrick
36.0%▼
49.5%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2021 | 2 | 01:47 | Neutral | Nolan Patrick |
| Mar 20, 2021 | 3 | 15:46 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Mar 20, 2021 | 2 | 18:02 | Neutral | Nolan Patrick |
| Mar 20, 2021 | 2 | 16:19 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Mar 18, 2021 | 2 | 06:06 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 31, 2021 | 2 | 02:19 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 31, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nolan Patrick |
| Jan 31, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 30, 2021 | 3 | 14:23 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 30, 2021 | 2 | 15:58 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 30, 2021 | 1 | 13:55 | Neutral | Nolan Patrick |