Scouting Report
Nolan Patrick holds a +9.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Barzal on neutral-zone draws (64% H2H, 11 meetings). Barzal wins 42.1% vs right-shot opponents — Patrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 42.2% vs Patrick 51.0% (-9.0%)
H2H factor
Barzal leads 8-6 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Patrick 56.5%
Defensive zone
Patrick 73.5%
Neutral zone
Patrick 68.9%
Result
Nolan Patrick favored at 67.5%
32.5%
67.5%
Barzal
Patrick
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
6
(14 meetings)
8
6
Barzal
Patrick
Last 10: Barzal 7-3 Patrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Barzal
Patrick
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Patrick
0
1
Barzal
Patrick
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Barzal
7
4
Barzal
Patrick
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Patrick
Edge
Even Strength
41.9% (3,565)
50.6% (1,978)
-8.7%
Power Play
43.4% (205)
57.5% (120)
-14.1%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (26)
57.7% (26)
-15.4%
On penalty kill, Patrick has a +15.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Patrick shoots right. Barzal is 42.1% vs right-shot opponents (1,097).
Barzal shoots right. Patrick is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (683).
Home / Away
Barzal
Patrick
Home
43.1% (1,895)
49.7% (1,106)
Away
40.9% (1,901)
52.5% (1,018)
By Period
Barzal
Patrick
P1
40.7%
52.9%
P2
44.4%
49.1%
P3
41.0%
51.3%
OT
27.6%
40.0%
Final 5 min
39.9%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
42.0%
Patrick
36.0%▼
49.5%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2021 | 2 | 01:47 | Neutral | Nolan Patrick |
| Mar 20, 2021 | 3 | 15:46 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Mar 20, 2021 | 2 | 18:02 | Neutral | Nolan Patrick |
| Mar 20, 2021 | 2 | 16:19 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Mar 18, 2021 | 2 | 06:06 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 31, 2021 | 2 | 02:19 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 31, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nolan Patrick |
| Jan 31, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 30, 2021 | 3 | 14:23 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 30, 2021 | 2 | 15:58 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 30, 2021 | 1 | 13:55 | Neutral | Nolan Patrick |
| Mar 23, 2019 | 1 | 02:38 | Offensive | Nolan Patrick |
| Oct 27, 2018 | 3 | 10:19 | Defensive | Nolan Patrick |
| Jan 4, 2018 | 3 | 14:50 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |