Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +13.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Barzal on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Barzal wins 41.9% vs left-shot opponents — Stastny shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 42.2% vs Stastny 55.1% (-13.1%)
H2H factor
Barzal leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Stastny 73.8%
Defensive zone
Stastny 80.9%
Neutral zone
Stastny 81.7%
Result
Paul Stastny favored at 79.0%
21.0%
79.0%
Barzal
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
6
(13 meetings)
7
6
Barzal
Stastny
Last 10: Barzal 5-5 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
3
1
Barzal
Stastny
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
3
2
Barzal
Stastny
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stastny
1
3
Barzal
Stastny
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
41.9% (3,558)
54.6% (10,616)
-12.7%
Power Play
43.4% (205)
59.1% (1,994)
-15.7%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (26)
52.9% (1,119)
-10.6%
On power play, Stastny has a +15.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Barzal is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,695).
Barzal shoots right. Stastny is 58.4% vs right-shot opponents (4,907).
Home / Away
Barzal
Stastny
Home
43.1% (1,893)
55.9% (7,073)
Away
40.9% (1,896)
54.3% (6,705)
By Period
Barzal
Stastny
P1
40.6%
56.3%
P2
44.4%
55.4%
P3
41.0%
53.5%
OT
27.6%
62.9%
Final 5 min
39.9%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
40.0%▼
44.5%
42.0%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
55.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 10, 2022 | 1 | 01:44 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 3 | 00:21 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 2 | 19:25 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 1 | 12:52 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 5, 2019 | 3 | 15:28 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 5, 2019 | 2 | 19:55 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 5, 2019 | 2 | 19:34 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 5, 2019 | 1 | 01:19 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 20, 2018 | 2 | 15:50 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 20, 2018 | 2 | 10:29 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 20, 2018 | 1 | 18:30 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 11, 2017 | 3 | 17:17 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 9, 2017 | 3 | 11:51 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |