Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +12.2% FO% edge overall. Barzal wins 38.9% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 41.4% vs Zacha 51.7% (-12.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barzal 68.4%
Defensive zone
Barzal 61.2%
Neutral zone
Barzal 66.2%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 65.5%
65.5%
34.5%
Barzal
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Barzal
Zacha
Last 8: Barzal 3-5 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Barzal
Zacha
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
0
2
Barzal
Zacha
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Barzal
Zacha
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
40.4% (463)
53.3% (646)
-12.9%
Power Play
34.2% (38)
53.0% (100)
-18.8%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (7)
38.9% (72)
-10.3%
On power play, Zacha has a +18.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Barzal is 38.9% vs left-shot opponents (393).
Barzal shoots right. Zacha is 52.2% vs right-shot opponents (341).
Home / Away
Barzal
Zacha
Home
38.1% (244)
51.7% (410)
Away
41.3% (264)
52.2% (408)
By Period
Barzal
Zacha
P1
46.6%
57.7%
P2
35.7%
48.9%
P3
37.7%
50.2%
OT
0.0%
35.7%
Final 5 min
40.5%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
39.8%
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 12:43 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 00:43 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 13:19 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 07:20 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 05:25 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 15:45 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |