Scouting Report
Ryan Poehling holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Poehling on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Barzal wins 41.9% vs left-shot opponents — Poehling shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 42.2% vs Poehling 48.1% (-6.1%)
H2H factor
Poehling leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Barzal 90.8%
Defensive zone
Barzal 64.6%
Neutral zone
Barzal 80.6%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 77.9%
77.9%
22.1%
Barzal
Poehling
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
8
(11 meetings)
3
8
Barzal
Poehling
Last 10: Barzal 2-8 Poehling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Poehling
1
4
Barzal
Poehling
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Poehling
2
3
Barzal
Poehling
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Poehling
0
1
Barzal
Poehling
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Poehling
Edge
Even Strength
41.9% (3,565)
49.4% (2,726)
-7.5%
Power Play
43.4% (205)
51.6% (93)
-8.2%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (26)
41.6% (623)
+0.7%
On power play, Poehling has a +8.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Poehling shoots left. Barzal is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,699).
Barzal shoots right. Poehling is 49.8% vs right-shot opponents (1,141).
Home / Away
Barzal
Poehling
Home
43.1% (1,895)
49.3% (1,688)
Away
40.9% (1,901)
46.9% (1,754)
By Period
Barzal
Poehling
P1
40.7%
50.9%
P2
44.4%
47.0%
P3
41.0%
46.9%
OT
27.6%
37.9%
Final 5 min
39.9%
47.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
42.0%
Poehling
58.0%▲
48.5%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 19:09 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 08:33 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 1 | 10:43 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 1 | 10:35 | Offensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Nov 25, 2023 | 1 | 06:50 | Offensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Apr 15, 2022 | 2 | 13:18 | Offensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Apr 15, 2022 | 2 | 08:32 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Apr 15, 2022 | 1 | 13:19 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Feb 20, 2022 | 3 | 11:56 | Offensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Feb 20, 2022 | 2 | 17:34 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Feb 20, 2022 | 1 | 08:26 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |