Scouting Report
Sidney Crosby holds a +15.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Barzal on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Barzal wins 38.8% vs left-shot opponents — Crosby shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 41.4% vs Crosby 55.0% (-15.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Crosby 91.3%
Defensive zone
Crosby 67.7%
Neutral zone
Crosby 81.0%
Result
Sidney Crosby favored at 82.2%
17.8%
82.2%
Barzal
Crosby
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Barzal
Crosby
Last 6: Barzal 4-2 Crosby
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
2
0
Barzal
Crosby
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Crosby
0
1
Barzal
Crosby
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Barzal
2
1
Barzal
Crosby
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Crosby
Edge
Even Strength
40.4% (456)
53.2% (877)
-12.8%
Power Play
34.2% (38)
63.8% (210)
-29.6%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (7)
64.3% (14)
-35.7%
On penalty kill, Crosby has a +35.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Crosby shoots left. Barzal is 38.8% vs left-shot opponents (389).
Barzal shoots right. Crosby is 57.9% vs right-shot opponents (321).
Home / Away
Barzal
Crosby
Home
38.0% (242)
56.4% (578)
Away
41.3% (259)
54.3% (523)
By Period
Barzal
Crosby
P1
46.6%
57.0%
P2
35.4%
51.4%
P3
38.0%
57.9%
OT
0.0%
52.6%
Final 5 min
40.5%
55.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
40.0%▼
44.5%
39.7%
Crosby
36.0%▼
52.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 19:57 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 19:19 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 04:04 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 00:43 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 10:38 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 00:20 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |