Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +17.1% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Coronato wins 34.6% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coronato 42.9% vs O'Reilly 54.8% (-17.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Coronato 82.9%
Defensive zone
Coronato 72.9%
Neutral zone
Coronato 78.3%
Result
Matt Coronato favored at 76.2%
76.2%
23.8%
Coronato
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
7
(8 meetings)
1
7
Coronato
O'Reilly
Last 8: Coronato 1-7 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Coronato
1
0
Coronato
O'Reilly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
4
Coronato
O'Reilly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
3
Coronato
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coronato
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
36.2% (116)
55.3% (815)
-19.1%
Power Play
46.7% (30)
58.0% (219)
-11.3%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
49.2% (124)
-49.2%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +49.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Coronato is 34.6% vs left-shot opponents (127).
Coronato shoots right. O'Reilly is 54.8% vs right-shot opponents (498).
Home / Away
Coronato
O'Reilly
Home
37.5% (64)
55.8% (579)
Away
38.6% (83)
54.6% (579)
By Period
Coronato
O'Reilly
P1
50.9%
57.5%
P2
32.6%
54.7%
P3
29.2%
54.1%
Final 5 min
34.5%
55.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coronato
38.0%▬
39.0%
38.1%
O'Reilly
48.0%▼
54.5%
55.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 19:31 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 06:12 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 03:10 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 09:16 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 06:08 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 05:50 | Offensive | Matt Coronato |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 2 | 11:42 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 17:29 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |