Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +16.1% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Coronato wins 39.1% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coronato 42.3% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-16.1%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 9-1 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Coronato 93.5%
Defensive zone
Coronato 74.9%
Neutral zone
Coronato 88.1%
Result
Matt Coronato favored at 80.7%
80.7%
19.3%
Coronato
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
9
(10 meetings)
1
9
Coronato
O'Reilly
Last 10: Coronato 1-9 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Coronato
1
0
Coronato
O'Reilly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
6
Coronato
O'Reilly
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
3
Coronato
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coronato
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
37.8% (259)
56.2% (15,260)
-18.4%
Power Play
48.5% (68)
58.8% (3,445)
-10.3%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
51.4% (2,811)
-51.4%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +51.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Coronato is 39.1% vs left-shot opponents (284).
Coronato shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.7% vs right-shot opponents (7,689).
Home / Away
Coronato
O'Reilly
Home
39.8% (171)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
40.1% (157)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Coronato
O'Reilly
P1
42.2%
55.6%
P2
38.0%
57.0%
P3
38.1%
55.1%
OT
100.0%
62.2%
Final 5 min
43.7%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coronato
42.0%▲
39.5%
39.9%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 19:31 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 06:12 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 03:10 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 09:16 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 06:08 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 05:50 | Offensive | Matt Coronato |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 2 | 11:42 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 17:29 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 1 | 10:28 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 1 | 00:14 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |