Scouting Report
Alex Turcotte holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Turcotte wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Turcotte 53.2% vs Duchene 51.8% (+1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 56.4%
Defensive zone
Duchene 51.5%
Neutral zone
Turcotte 50.2%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 51.8%
48.2%
51.8%
Turcotte
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Turcotte
Duchene
Last 5: Turcotte 2-3 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
Turcotte
Duchene
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
2
Turcotte
Duchene
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Turcotte
2
0
Turcotte
Duchene
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Turcotte
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (460)
51.4% (319)
+2.1%
Power Play
70.0% (10)
61.5% (52)
+8.5%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
16.7% (6)
+83.3%
On penalty kill, Turcotte has a +83.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Turcotte is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (302).
Turcotte shoots left. Duchene is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (242).
Home / Away
Turcotte
Duchene
Home
53.2% (263)
52.3% (176)
Away
54.8% (208)
52.2% (201)
By Period
Turcotte
Duchene
P1
57.0%
49.6%
P2
59.6%
56.9%
P3
44.1%
48.6%
Final 5 min
52.6%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Turcotte
38.0%▼
52.5%
53.9%
Duchene
48.0%▼
51.0%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 15:46 | Neutral | Alex Turcotte |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 15:38 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 12:52 | Neutral | Alex Turcotte |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 2 | 15:29 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 1 | 15:43 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |