Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +15.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Smith wins 34.8% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Smith 43.0% vs Duchene 54.2% (-15.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Smith 63.0%
Defensive zone
Duchene 63.4%
Neutral zone
Duchene 50.1%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 51.7%
48.3%
51.7%
Smith
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Smith
Duchene
Last 9: Smith 4-5 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Smith
4
0
Smith
Duchene
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
5
Smith
Duchene
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Smith
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
37.4% (163)
56.8% (706)
-19.4%
Power Play
48.6% (37)
56.1% (57)
-7.5%
On even strength, Duchene has a +19.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Smith is 34.8% vs left-shot opponents (155).
Smith shoots right. Duchene is 49.6% vs right-shot opponents (258).
Home / Away
Smith
Duchene
Home
47.1% (68)
56.6% (488)
Away
35.6% (132)
52.3% (405)
By Period
Smith
Duchene
P1
32.8%
52.0%
P2
42.0%
53.7%
P3
43.8%
58.5%
Final 5 min
42.2%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Smith
30.0%▼
44.0%
39.5%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2013 | 2 | 18:50 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 30, 2013 | 1 | 13:54 | Offensive | Craig Smith |
| Mar 30, 2013 | 1 | 12:30 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 30, 2013 | 1 | 12:27 | Offensive | Craig Smith |
| Feb 18, 2013 | 3 | 14:02 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 18, 2013 | 3 | 12:23 | Offensive | Craig Smith |
| Feb 18, 2013 | 3 | 08:41 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 18, 2013 | 2 | 04:41 | Offensive | Craig Smith |
| Feb 18, 2013 | 1 | 19:22 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |