Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 12 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Strome 51.6% vs Duchene 54.1% (-2.6%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 17-10 in 27 meetings
Offensive zone
Strome 81.3%
Defensive zone
Strome 50.9%
Neutral zone
Strome 62.5%
Result
Dylan Strome favored at 67.3%
67.3%
32.7%
Strome
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
17
(27 meetings)
10
17
Strome
Duchene
Last 10: Strome 5-5 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Strome
6
4
Strome
Duchene
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
3
Strome
Duchene
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
10
Strome
Duchene
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Strome
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
50.1% (6,337)
53.9% (10,396)
-3.8%
Power Play
58.4% (1,519)
56.9% (1,665)
+1.5%
Penalty Kill
45.6% (68)
49.1% (468)
-3.5%
On even strength, Duchene has a +3.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Strome is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,269).
Strome shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,059).
Home / Away
Strome
Duchene
Home
51.1% (3,968)
55.6% (6,411)
Away
52.2% (3,956)
52.7% (6,142)
By Period
Strome
Duchene
P1
50.4%
54.5%
P2
52.1%
54.5%
P3
52.3%
53.4%
OT
52.8%
56.3%
Final 5 min
52.3%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Strome
44.0%▼
55.0%
51.6%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2026 | 3 | 19:06 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |
| Jan 7, 2026 | 3 | 18:47 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |
| Jan 7, 2026 | 3 | 18:40 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 16, 2024 | 3 | 19:34 | Neutral | Dylan Strome |
| Dec 16, 2024 | 3 | 19:29 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 16, 2024 | 3 | 18:57 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 1 | 01:41 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 27, 2024 | OT | 03:01 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |
| Jan 27, 2024 | OT | 00:20 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 11:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 06:24 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 2 | 04:15 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 1 | 05:20 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 1 | 02:48 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 16, 2022 | 1 | 17:48 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 27, 2021 | 3 | 04:48 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |
| Jan 26, 2021 | OT | 01:10 | Defensive | Dylan Strome |
| Jan 26, 2021 | 3 | 00:34 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 26, 2021 | 1 | 14:08 | Defensive | Dylan Strome |