Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 51.6% vs Kadri 47.6% (+4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 66.7%
Defensive zone
Duchene 74.3%
Neutral zone
Duchene 58.2%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 68.0%
68.0%
32.0%
Duchene
Kadri
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Duchene
Kadri
Last 5: Duchene 4-1 Kadri
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Duchene
Kadri
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
0
Duchene
Kadri
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Kadri
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Kadri
Edge
Even Strength
51.2% (324)
47.4% (821)
+3.8%
Power Play
60.4% (53)
48.8% (86)
+11.6%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
38.5% (13)
-21.8%
On penalty kill, Kadri has a +21.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kadri shoots left. Duchene is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (242).
Duchene shoots left. Kadri is 44.2% vs left-shot opponents (595).
Home / Away
Duchene
Kadri
Home
51.6% (182)
46.6% (487)
Away
52.2% (201)
48.3% (433)
By Period
Duchene
Kadri
P1
49.6%
52.7%
P2
56.2%
50.2%
P3
48.6%
40.2%
OT
60.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
51.1%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.0%
Kadri
36.0%▼
39.5%
47.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 14:36 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 08:48 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 11:36 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 08:11 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 07:59 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |