Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Duchene wins 56.7% vs left-shot opponents — Bonino shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.2% vs Bonino 47.6% (+7.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bonino 53.7%
Defensive zone
Bonino 52.2%
Neutral zone
Bonino 52.4%
Result
Nick Bonino favored at 52.9%
47.1%
52.9%
Duchene
Bonino
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Duchene
Bonino
Last 7: Duchene 3-4 Bonino
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
1
Duchene
Bonino
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Duchene
Bonino
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bonino
0
2
Duchene
Bonino
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Bonino
Edge
Even Strength
56.8% (706)
48.4% (246)
+8.4%
Power Play
56.1% (57)
37.5% (32)
+18.6%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (130)
41.2% (17)
+1.1%
On power play, Duchene has a +18.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bonino shoots left. Duchene is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (635).
Duchene shoots left. Bonino is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (212).
Home / Away
Duchene
Bonino
Home
56.6% (488)
53.3% (122)
Away
52.3% (405)
42.2% (173)
By Period
Duchene
Bonino
P1
52.0%
48.4%
P2
53.7%
44.3%
P3
58.5%
47.2%
OT
46.7%
100.0%
Final 5 min
51.8%
50.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.6%
Bonino
46.0%▼
47.5%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2013 | 3 | 04:49 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 24, 2013 | 2 | 10:04 | Neutral | Nick Bonino |
| Feb 24, 2013 | 2 | 02:37 | Neutral | Nick Bonino |
| Feb 6, 2013 | 3 | 03:07 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 6, 2013 | 2 | 09:19 | Offensive | Nick Bonino |
| Feb 6, 2013 | 2 | 05:53 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| Feb 6, 2013 | 1 | 13:07 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |