Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +11.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Engvall on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Duchene wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Engvall shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.1% vs Engvall 43.7% (+11.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 85.2%
Defensive zone
Duchene 67.2%
Neutral zone
Duchene 81.5%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 78.8%
78.8%
21.2%
Duchene
Engvall
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Duchene
Engvall
Last 8: Duchene 5-3 Engvall
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
0
Duchene
Engvall
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
0
Duchene
Engvall
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Engvall
1
3
Duchene
Engvall
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Engvall
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (10,396)
41.8% (471)
+12.1%
Power Play
56.9% (1,665)
53.7% (41)
+3.2%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (468)
41.2% (51)
+7.9%
On even strength, Duchene has a +12.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Engvall shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,059).
Duchene shoots left. Engvall is 44.2% vs left-shot opponents (335).
Home / Away
Duchene
Engvall
Home
55.6% (6,411)
45.6% (248)
Away
52.7% (6,142)
40.3% (315)
By Period
Duchene
Engvall
P1
54.5%
45.3%
P2
54.5%
43.1%
P3
53.4%
39.3%
Final 5 min
53.7%
46.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Engvall
36.0%▼
43.5%
42.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2020 | 2 | 15:35 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 27, 2020 | 2 | 08:51 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 27, 2020 | 1 | 17:48 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 27, 2020 | 1 | 14:46 | Neutral | Pierre Engvall |
| Jan 27, 2020 | 1 | 10:35 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 27, 2020 | 1 | 07:26 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 27, 2020 | 1 | 07:12 | Neutral | Pierre Engvall |
| Jan 27, 2020 | 1 | 04:13 | Neutral | Pierre Engvall |