Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +25.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Duchene wins 58.3% vs left-shot opponents — Eklund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 55.6% vs Eklund 37.0% (+25.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 88.2%
Defensive zone
Duchene 89.0%
Neutral zone
Duchene 89.8%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 88.5%
88.5%
11.5%
Duchene
Eklund
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Duchene
Eklund
Last 5: Duchene 4-1 Eklund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
4
0
Duchene
Eklund
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Eklund
0
1
Duchene
Eklund
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Eklund
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (566)
30.8% (208)
+25.7%
Power Play
61.3% (62)
47.1% (17)
+14.2%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
0.0% (5)
+22.2%
On even strength, Duchene has a +25.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eklund shoots left. Duchene is 58.3% vs left-shot opponents (386).
Duchene shoots left. Eklund is 29.4% vs left-shot opponents (143).
Home / Away
Duchene
Eklund
Home
56.6% (318)
31.2% (125)
Away
56.4% (319)
31.4% (105)
By Period
Duchene
Eklund
P1
57.2%
29.5%
P2
55.1%
27.2%
P3
55.6%
37.1%
OT
81.3%
100.0%
Final 5 min
47.9%
27.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
56.5%
Eklund
28.0%▬
29.0%
31.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2024 | 3 | 13:41 | Neutral | William Eklund |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 3 | 08:07 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 2 | 01:16 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 1 | 13:43 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 1 | 00:54 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |