Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +11.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Poitras on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Poitras wins 45.8% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Poitras 45.5% vs Monahan 54.5% (-11.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 63.5%
Defensive zone
Monahan 75.3%
Neutral zone
Monahan 74.2%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 72.3%
27.7%
72.3%
Poitras
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Poitras
Monahan
Last 5: Poitras 3-2 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Poitras
1
0
Poitras
Monahan
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
1
Poitras
Monahan
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Poitras
2
1
Poitras
Monahan
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Poitras
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
43.3% (245)
57.1% (871)
-13.8%
Power Play
50.0% (6)
53.1% (262)
-3.1%
Penalty Kill
66.7% (3)
44.6% (139)
+22.1%
On penalty kill, Poitras has a +22.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Poitras is 45.8% vs left-shot opponents (168).
Poitras shoots right. Monahan is 53.4% vs right-shot opponents (519).
Home / Away
Poitras
Monahan
Home
44.6% (121)
55.3% (644)
Away
42.9% (133)
54.5% (628)
By Period
Poitras
Monahan
P1
41.5%
53.9%
P2
45.4%
55.3%
P3
44.4%
54.4%
Final 5 min
40.0%
55.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Poitras
42.0%▼
44.5%
43.7%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2024 | 3 | 10:40 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 3 | 01:26 | Neutral | Matthew Poitras |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 2 | 05:41 | Offensive | Matthew Poitras |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 2 | 05:33 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 2 | 05:18 | Neutral | Matthew Poitras |