Scouting Report
Matty Beniers holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall. Beniers wins 45.1% vs right-shot opponents — Marner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Beniers 49.4% vs Marner 43.1% (+8.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Marner 53.1%
Defensive zone
Beniers 50.8%
Neutral zone
Beniers 50.4%
Result
Mitch Marner favored at 50.8%
49.2%
50.8%
Beniers
Marner
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Beniers
Marner
Last 5: Beniers 2-3 Marner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Marner
0
2
Beniers
Marner
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Beniers
Marner
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Beniers
1
0
Beniers
Marner
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Beniers
Marner
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (833)
41.5% (282)
+7.4%
Power Play
58.3% (36)
40.0% (5)
+18.3%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (32)
25.0% (12)
+25.0%
On penalty kill, Beniers has a +25.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Marner shoots right. Beniers is 45.1% vs right-shot opponents (286).
Beniers shoots left. Marner is 40.9% vs left-shot opponents (220).
Home / Away
Beniers
Marner
Home
52.4% (460)
36.1% (158)
Away
46.0% (441)
46.1% (141)
By Period
Beniers
Marner
P1
48.4%
41.6%
P2
51.1%
40.2%
P3
47.8%
40.5%
Final 5 min
45.5%
41.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Beniers
44.0%▼
50.5%
49.3%
Marner
48.0%▲
40.0%
40.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 12:48 | Offensive | Mitch Marner |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 12:34 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 06:43 | Offensive | Mitch Marner |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 16:10 | Defensive | Mitch Marner |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 15:17 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |