Scouting Report
Matty Beniers holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Beniers on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Beniers wins 44.4% vs right-shot opponents — Marner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Beniers 46.7% vs Marner 43.1% (+4.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Marner 52.5%
Defensive zone
Beniers 50.9%
Neutral zone
Beniers 51.1%
Result
Mitch Marner favored at 50.2%
49.8%
50.2%
Beniers
Marner
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Beniers
Marner
Last 6: Beniers 3-3 Marner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Marner
0
2
Beniers
Marner
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Beniers
2
1
Beniers
Marner
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Beniers
1
0
Beniers
Marner
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Beniers
Marner
Edge
Even Strength
46.6% (3,796)
42.2% (462)
+4.4%
Power Play
47.8% (360)
55.6% (18)
-7.8%
Penalty Kill
41.4% (111)
35.4% (65)
+6.0%
On power play, Marner has a +7.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Marner shoots right. Beniers is 44.4% vs right-shot opponents (1,447).
Beniers shoots left. Marner is 40.1% vs left-shot opponents (372).
Home / Away
Beniers
Marner
Home
48.9% (2,195)
38.2% (293)
Away
44.2% (2,072)
46.0% (252)
By Period
Beniers
Marner
P1
47.4%
39.1%
P2
47.1%
41.1%
P3
45.7%
47.1%
OT
34.1%
40.0%
Final 5 min
46.2%
47.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Beniers
44.0%▼
50.5%
46.6%
Marner
48.0%▲
40.0%
41.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 12:48 | Offensive | Mitch Marner |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 12:34 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 06:43 | Offensive | Mitch Marner |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 16:10 | Defensive | Mitch Marner |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 15:17 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Oct 31, 2024 | 1 | 02:14 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |