Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Beniers on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Beniers wins 44.5% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Beniers 47.8% vs Stamkos 49.9% (-2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 75.3%
Defensive zone
Beniers 66.7%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 60.0%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 53.2%
46.8%
53.2%
Beniers
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Beniers
Stamkos
Last 9: Beniers 5-4 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Beniers
3
0
Beniers
Stamkos
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Beniers
Stamkos
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
2
Beniers
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Beniers
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
48.3% (1,050)
49.3% (670)
-1.0%
Power Play
42.9% (105)
53.7% (121)
-10.8%
Penalty Kill
43.6% (39)
33.3% (3)
+10.3%
On power play, Stamkos has a +10.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Beniers is 44.5% vs right-shot opponents (373).
Beniers shoots left. Stamkos is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (610).
Home / Away
Beniers
Stamkos
Home
48.7% (630)
54.0% (400)
Away
46.5% (564)
45.7% (394)
By Period
Beniers
Stamkos
P1
49.2%
48.6%
P2
45.0%
54.5%
P3
49.3%
45.4%
OT
22.2%
100.0%
Final 5 min
45.6%
46.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Beniers
44.0%▼
50.5%
47.7%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2025 | 2 | 03:21 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 2 | 02:48 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 1 | 18:48 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 1 | 18:36 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 1 | 15:23 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 1 | 07:14 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 1 | 07:07 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 1 | 04:46 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 1 | 01:34 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |