Scouting Report
Matty Beniers holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Johnson on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Beniers wins 44.3% vs right-shot opponents — Johnson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Beniers 47.6% vs Johnson 45.7% (+3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johnson 54.6%
Defensive zone
Johnson 53.6%
Neutral zone
Johnson 52.6%
Result
Tyler Johnson favored at 54.2%
45.8%
54.2%
Beniers
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Beniers
Johnson
Last 5: Beniers 2-3 Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johnson
1
3
Beniers
Johnson
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Beniers
1
0
Beniers
Johnson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Beniers
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
47.3% (945)
44.6% (285)
+2.7%
Power Play
51.7% (145)
46.7% (60)
+5.0%
Penalty Kill
23.8% (21)
16.7% (6)
+7.1%
On penalty kill, Beniers has a +7.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Beniers is 44.3% vs right-shot opponents (393).
Beniers shoots left. Johnson is 43.6% vs left-shot opponents (273).
Home / Away
Beniers
Johnson
Home
49.6% (565)
50.8% (179)
Away
45.2% (546)
37.8% (172)
By Period
Beniers
Johnson
P1
48.0%
41.3%
P2
49.0%
41.8%
P3
46.5%
49.6%
OT
23.5%
100.0%
Final 5 min
51.5%
43.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Beniers
44.0%▼
50.5%
47.4%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
44.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 28, 2023 | 3 | 17:41 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 2 | 11:31 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 2 | 11:21 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 1 | 14:29 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |