Mavrik Bourque vs Mikael Backlund
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Bourque wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bourque 47.1% vs Backlund 48.5% (-2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bourque 58.3%
Defensive zone
Backlund 58.8%
Neutral zone
Bourque 50.9%
Result
Mavrik Bourque favored at 50.9%
50.9%
49.1%
Bourque
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Bourque
Backlund
Last 9: Bourque 4-5 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Bourque
Backlund
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
2
Bourque
Backlund
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Bourque
Backlund
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bourque
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (321)
50.4% (1,032)
-3.7%
Power Play
33.3% (6)
52.3% (107)
-19.0%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (21)
40.6% (313)
+2.3%
On power play, Backlund has a +19.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Bourque is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (269).
Bourque shoots right. Backlund is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (438).
Home / Away
Bourque
Backlund
Home
51.0% (157)
48.7% (749)
Away
42.4% (191)
48.1% (703)
By Period
Bourque
Backlund
P1
44.2%
50.4%
P2
44.7%
50.1%
P3
49.6%
45.8%
OT
0.0%
30.8%
Final 5 min
59.2%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bourque
50.0%▲
46.0%
46.3%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2025 | 3 | 09:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 3 | 05:46 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 3 | 05:43 | Offensive | Mavrik Bourque |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 2 | 15:05 | Offensive | Mavrik Bourque |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 2 | 02:05 | Defensive | Mavrik Bourque |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 2 | 02:01 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 2 | 10:08 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 2 | 04:50 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 1 | 08:46 | Neutral | Mavrik Bourque |