Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +11.2% FO% edge overall. Bourque wins 41.2% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bourque 46.7% vs Frost 55.7% (-11.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 93.4%
Defensive zone
Frost 53.3%
Neutral zone
Frost 72.8%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 53.3%
46.7%
53.3%
Bourque
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Bourque
Frost
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bourque
1
0
Bourque
Frost
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bourque
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
47.0% (181)
54.9% (701)
-7.9%
Power Play
25.0% (16)
60.8% (166)
-35.8%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
100.0% (5)
-57.1%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +57.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Bourque is 41.2% vs left-shot opponents (148).
Bourque shoots right. Frost is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (286).
Home / Away
Bourque
Frost
Home
41.9% (105)
56.0% (443)
Away
48.5% (99)
56.6% (429)
By Period
Bourque
Frost
P1
39.7%
58.9%
P2
39.3%
55.3%
P3
52.9%
54.0%
Final 5 min
44.2%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bourque
50.0%▲
46.0%
45.1%
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 06:59 | Defensive | Mavrik Bourque |