Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Bourque wins 44.2% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bourque 46.4% vs Frost 50.3% (-4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 63.3%
Defensive zone
Bourque 78.5%
Neutral zone
Bourque 62.1%
Result
Mavrik Bourque favored at 51.6%
51.6%
48.4%
Bourque
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Bourque
Frost
Last 9: Bourque 4-5 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
1
4
Bourque
Frost
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bourque
2
0
Bourque
Frost
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Bourque
Frost
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bourque
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (508)
49.4% (3,598)
-2.7%
Power Play
27.3% (22)
55.5% (625)
-28.2%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (28)
52.8% (36)
-9.9%
On power play, Frost has a +28.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Bourque is 44.2% vs left-shot opponents (421).
Bourque shoots right. Frost is 49.8% vs right-shot opponents (1,477).
Home / Away
Bourque
Frost
Home
47.3% (262)
51.0% (2,047)
Away
44.3% (296)
49.7% (2,212)
By Period
Bourque
Frost
P1
42.4%
50.8%
P2
42.9%
51.1%
P3
50.7%
48.5%
OT
0.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
52.0%
48.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bourque
50.0%▲
46.0%
45.7%
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 06:59 | Defensive | Mavrik Bourque |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 2 | 12:55 | Neutral | Mavrik Bourque |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 2 | 01:41 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 1 | 17:04 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 6, 2025 | OT | 02:50 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 2 | 17:38 | Defensive | Mavrik Bourque |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 3 | 07:40 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 3 | 05:09 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 2 | 13:49 | Offensive | Mavrik Bourque |