Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Bourque wins 43.8% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bourque 46.2% vs Frost 49.9% (-4.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 62.8%
Defensive zone
Bourque 78.4%
Neutral zone
Bourque 62.2%
Result
Mavrik Bourque favored at 51.9%
51.9%
48.1%
Bourque
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Bourque
Frost
Last 9: Bourque 4-5 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
1
4
Bourque
Frost
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bourque
2
0
Bourque
Frost
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Bourque
Frost
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bourque
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
46.4% (494)
49.0% (3,418)
-2.6%
Power Play
21.4% (14)
55.0% (600)
-33.6%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (26)
52.8% (36)
-10.5%
On power play, Frost has a +33.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Bourque is 43.8% vs left-shot opponents (400).
Bourque shoots right. Frost is 49.7% vs right-shot opponents (1,400).
Home / Away
Bourque
Frost
Home
47.1% (242)
50.9% (1,943)
Away
44.2% (292)
49.0% (2,111)
By Period
Bourque
Frost
P1
42.7%
50.3%
P2
42.7%
51.0%
P3
50.2%
48.0%
OT
0.0%
64.5%
Final 5 min
50.8%
48.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bourque
48.0%▲
43.5%
45.5%
Frost
74.0%▲
55.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 06:59 | Defensive | Mavrik Bourque |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 2 | 12:55 | Neutral | Mavrik Bourque |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 2 | 01:41 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 1 | 17:04 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 6, 2025 | OT | 02:50 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 2 | 17:38 | Defensive | Mavrik Bourque |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 3 | 07:40 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 3 | 05:09 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 2 | 13:49 | Offensive | Mavrik Bourque |