Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Bourque wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bourque 47.1% vs Frost 51.1% (-4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 71.8%
Defensive zone
Bourque 85.1%
Neutral zone
Bourque 65.4%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 55.4%
44.6%
55.4%
Bourque
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Bourque
Frost
Last 8: Bourque 3-5 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
1
4
Bourque
Frost
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bourque
1
0
Bourque
Frost
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Bourque
Frost
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bourque
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (321)
50.3% (825)
-3.6%
Power Play
33.3% (6)
54.9% (204)
-21.6%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (21)
50.0% (4)
-7.1%
On power play, Frost has a +21.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Bourque is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (269).
Bourque shoots right. Frost is 49.7% vs right-shot opponents (336).
Home / Away
Bourque
Frost
Home
51.0% (157)
50.7% (489)
Away
42.4% (191)
51.7% (544)
By Period
Bourque
Frost
P1
44.2%
53.6%
P2
44.7%
47.8%
P3
49.6%
52.0%
OT
0.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
59.2%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bourque
50.0%▲
46.0%
46.3%
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2025 | 2 | 12:55 | Neutral | Mavrik Bourque |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 2 | 01:41 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 1 | 17:04 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 6, 2025 | OT | 02:50 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 2 | 17:38 | Defensive | Mavrik Bourque |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 3 | 07:40 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 3 | 05:09 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 2 | 13:49 | Offensive | Mavrik Bourque |