Mavrik Bourque vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Bourque wins 39.4% vs left-shot opponents — Nugent-Hopkins shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bourque 46.4% vs Nugent-Hopkins 47.7% (-2.2%)
Offensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 56.0%
Defensive zone
Bourque 59.4%
Neutral zone
Nugent-Hopkins 51.2%
Result
Mavrik Bourque favored at 50.8%
50.8%
49.2%
Bourque
Nugent-Hopkins
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bourque
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (167)
47.6% (189)
-1.5%
Power Play
12.5% (8)
100.0% (2)
-87.5%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (5)
29.4% (17)
+10.6%
On power play, Nugent-Hopkins has a +87.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Bourque is 39.4% vs left-shot opponents (127).
Bourque shoots right. Nugent-Hopkins is 46.1% vs right-shot opponents (76).
Home / Away
Bourque
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
40.0% (85)
48.5% (132)
Away
48.4% (95)
43.4% (76)
By Period
Bourque
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
40.4%
51.4%
P2
38.0%
41.3%
P3
52.1%
48.5%
Final 5 min
40.0%
44.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bourque
48.0%▲
43.5%
44.4%
Nugent-Hopkins
48.0%▲
46.5%
46.6%