Mavrik Bourque vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Mavrik Bourque holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Bourque wins 44.2% vs left-shot opponents — Nugent-Hopkins shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bourque 46.4% vs Nugent-Hopkins 44.8% (+1.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 58.5%
Defensive zone
Bourque 60.1%
Neutral zone
Nugent-Hopkins 50.3%
Result
Mavrik Bourque favored at 50.4%
50.4%
49.6%
Bourque
Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Bourque
Nugent-Hopkins
Last 6: Bourque 1-5 Nugent-Hopkins
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
0
2
Bourque
Nugent-Hopkins
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
0
2
Bourque
Nugent-Hopkins
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Bourque
Nugent-Hopkins
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bourque
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (508)
44.9% (8,756)
+1.8%
Power Play
27.3% (22)
50.7% (839)
-23.4%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (28)
37.9% (879)
+5.0%
On power play, Nugent-Hopkins has a +23.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Bourque is 44.2% vs left-shot opponents (421).
Bourque shoots right. Nugent-Hopkins is 44.9% vs right-shot opponents (3,645).
Home / Away
Bourque
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
47.3% (262)
46.5% (5,350)
Away
44.3% (296)
42.9% (5,136)
By Period
Bourque
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
42.4%
45.1%
P2
42.9%
43.9%
P3
50.7%
45.3%
OT
0.0%
43.5%
Final 5 min
52.0%
43.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bourque
50.0%▲
46.0%
45.7%
Nugent-Hopkins
58.0%▲
50.0%
44.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mavrik Bourque |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 3 | 08:24 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 3 | 01:04 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 2 | 11:21 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 2 | 09:05 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 2 | 08:59 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |