Mavrik Bourque vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Bourque wins 41.2% vs left-shot opponents — Nugent-Hopkins shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bourque 46.7% vs Nugent-Hopkins 48.6% (-3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 70.2%
Defensive zone
Bourque 53.2%
Neutral zone
Nugent-Hopkins 61.6%
Result
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins favored at 61.6%
38.4%
61.6%
Bourque
Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Bourque
Nugent-Hopkins
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bourque
1
0
Bourque
Nugent-Hopkins
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bourque
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
47.0% (181)
47.6% (231)
-0.6%
Power Play
25.0% (16)
83.3% (12)
-58.3%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
33.3% (21)
+9.6%
On power play, Nugent-Hopkins has a +58.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Bourque is 41.2% vs left-shot opponents (148).
Bourque shoots right. Nugent-Hopkins is 45.8% vs right-shot opponents (96).
Home / Away
Bourque
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
41.9% (105)
51.2% (164)
Away
48.5% (99)
43.0% (100)
By Period
Bourque
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
39.7%
50.0%
P2
39.3%
46.2%
P3
52.9%
49.5%
Final 5 min
44.2%
44.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bourque
50.0%▲
46.0%
45.1%
Nugent-Hopkins
58.0%▲
50.0%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mavrik Bourque |