Scouting Report
Michael McCarron holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Kadri on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). McCarron wins 54.4% vs left-shot opponents — Kadri shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McCarron 52.5% vs Kadri 47.6% (+5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kadri 85.7%
Defensive zone
McCarron 83.3%
Neutral zone
Kadri 52.9%
Result
Nazem Kadri favored at 60.2%
39.8%
60.2%
McCarron
Kadri
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
McCarron
Kadri
Last 8: McCarron 4-4 Kadri
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kadri
1
3
McCarron
Kadri
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McCarron
2
0
McCarron
Kadri
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
McCarron
Kadri
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McCarron
Kadri
Edge
Even Strength
53.1% (672)
47.4% (821)
+5.7%
Power Play
18.2% (11)
48.8% (86)
-30.6%
Penalty Kill
53.7% (205)
38.5% (13)
+15.2%
On power play, Kadri has a +30.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kadri shoots left. McCarron is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (623).
McCarron shoots right. Kadri is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (325).
Home / Away
McCarron
Kadri
Home
52.8% (477)
46.6% (487)
Away
52.8% (411)
48.3% (433)
By Period
McCarron
Kadri
P1
56.5%
52.7%
P2
53.2%
50.2%
P3
49.0%
40.2%
OT
0.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
52.3%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McCarron
48.0%▬
48.5%
52.8%
Kadri
36.0%▼
39.5%
47.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 16:13 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 14:09 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 11:57 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 11:36 | Offensive | Michael McCarron |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 09:39 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 06:37 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 3 | 19:01 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 04:11 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |