Scouting Report
Michael McCarron holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Look for McCarron on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). McCarron wins 54.9% vs left-shot opponents — Kozak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McCarron 54.0% vs Kozak 47.8% (+8.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McCarron 63.3%
Defensive zone
McCarron 93.3%
Neutral zone
McCarron 81.1%
Result
Michael McCarron favored at 81.1%
81.1%
18.9%
McCarron
Kozak
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
0
(5 meetings)
5
0
McCarron
Kozak
Last 5: McCarron 5-0 Kozak
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: McCarron
5
0
McCarron
Kozak
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McCarron
Kozak
Edge
Even Strength
54.2% (756)
46.0% (137)
+8.2%
Power Play
55.6% (9)
66.7% (3)
-11.1%
Penalty Kill
55.1% (158)
40.0% (5)
+15.1%
On penalty kill, McCarron has a +15.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kozak shoots left. McCarron is 54.9% vs left-shot opponents (674).
McCarron shoots right. Kozak is 40.3% vs right-shot opponents (62).
Home / Away
McCarron
Kozak
Home
54.6% (445)
51.2% (84)
Away
54.2% (478)
39.3% (61)
By Period
McCarron
Kozak
P1
53.6%
57.1%
P2
55.6%
34.7%
P3
53.7%
48.1%
Final 5 min
53.5%
46.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McCarron
48.0%▬
48.5%
54.4%
Kozak
50.0%▬
49.0%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2025 | 3 | 10:40 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Jan 31, 2025 | 2 | 12:26 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Jan 31, 2025 | 2 | 02:51 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Jan 31, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Jan 31, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |