Scouting Report
Michael McLeod holds a +13.3% FO% edge overall. Look for McLeod on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). McLeod wins 59.8% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McLeod 56.6% vs Novak 46.5% (+13.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McLeod 57.9%
Defensive zone
McLeod 96.3%
Neutral zone
McLeod 85.5%
Result
Michael McLeod favored at 93.6%
93.6%
6.4%
McLeod
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
McLeod
Novak
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
3
0
McLeod
Novak
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Novak
0
1
McLeod
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McLeod
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
58.3% (859)
43.2% (118)
+15.1%
Power Play
50.0% (28)
47.8% (23)
+2.2%
On even strength, McLeod has a +15.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. McLeod is 59.8% vs left-shot opponents (778).
McLeod shoots right. Novak is 39.6% vs right-shot opponents (53).
Home / Away
McLeod
Novak
Home
55.3% (526)
50.7% (71)
Away
59.2% (529)
37.1% (70)
By Period
McLeod
Novak
P1
60.7%
44.7%
P2
55.9%
50.0%
P3
55.2%
38.9%
Final 5 min
55.0%
35.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McLeod
56.0%▼
63.5%
57.3%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
44.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 10, 2021 | 3 | 03:02 | Defensive | Michael McLeod |
| Nov 26, 2021 | 2 | 17:29 | Defensive | Michael McLeod |
| Nov 26, 2021 | 2 | 12:38 | Defensive | Michael McLeod |
| Nov 26, 2021 | 2 | 12:32 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |