Scouting Report
Michael McLeod holds a +16.1% FO% edge overall. McLeod wins 60.8% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McLeod 59.6% vs Novak 45.6% (+16.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McLeod 73.2%
Defensive zone
McLeod 94.2%
Neutral zone
McLeod 93.3%
Result
Michael McLeod favored at 85.6%
85.6%
14.4%
McLeod
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
McLeod
Novak
Last 5: McLeod 4-1 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
McLeod
Novak
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
2
0
McLeod
Novak
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McLeod
1
0
McLeod
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McLeod
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
61.5% (792)
43.8% (384)
+17.7%
Power Play
65.2% (23)
58.8% (17)
+6.4%
Penalty Kill
55.6% (153)
100.0% (1)
-44.4%
On penalty kill, Novak has a +44.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. McLeod is 60.8% vs left-shot opponents (720).
McLeod shoots right. Novak is 45.6% vs right-shot opponents (149).
Home / Away
McLeod
Novak
Home
62.0% (460)
46.5% (202)
Away
59.4% (508)
42.5% (200)
By Period
McLeod
Novak
P1
61.5%
49.2%
P2
63.6%
44.2%
P3
56.2%
40.0%
OT
73.3%
100.0%
Final 5 min
60.8%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McLeod
56.0%▼
63.5%
60.6%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2023 | 3 | 09:12 | Defensive | Michael McLeod |
| Jan 26, 2023 | 2 | 13:13 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 26, 2023 | 2 | 04:29 | Offensive | Michael McLeod |
| Jan 26, 2023 | 1 | 14:31 | Defensive | Michael McLeod |
| Jan 26, 2023 | 1 | 14:24 | Neutral | Michael McLeod |