Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.2% vs 52.0%). Look for Zibanejad on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 51.9% vs Zibanejad 51.8% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 60.4%
Defensive zone
Zibanejad 58.4%
Neutral zone
Spezza 58.4%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 55.4%
55.4%
44.6%
Spezza
Zibanejad
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Spezza
Zibanejad
Last 5: Spezza 1-4 Zibanejad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
0
1
Spezza
Zibanejad
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
0
1
Spezza
Zibanejad
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
1
2
Spezza
Zibanejad
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Zibanejad
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (526)
52.8% (767)
-1.5%
Power Play
57.7% (123)
62.6% (107)
-4.9%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (29)
28.9% (76)
+15.9%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +15.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zibanejad shoots right. Spezza is 49.7% vs right-shot opponents (187).
Spezza shoots right. Zibanejad is 45.3% vs right-shot opponents (298).
Home / Away
Spezza
Zibanejad
Home
53.7% (374)
51.0% (500)
Away
50.3% (304)
53.1% (450)
By Period
Spezza
Zibanejad
P1
50.2%
54.2%
P2
50.2%
53.6%
P3
56.2%
49.0%
OT
66.7%
37.5%
Final 5 min
48.0%
57.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
52.2%
Zibanejad
50.0%▼
51.5%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2017 | 2 | 15:05 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Jan 17, 2017 | 2 | 06:03 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Jan 17, 2017 | 2 | 02:02 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 17, 2017 | 2 | 01:52 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Jan 17, 2017 | 1 | 16:42 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |