Scouting Report
Mika Zibanejad holds a +7.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Zibanejad on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zibanejad 51.7% vs Cates 45.2% (+7.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 53.5%
Defensive zone
Zibanejad 65.8%
Neutral zone
Zibanejad 65.2%
Result
Mika Zibanejad favored at 57.4%
57.4%
42.6%
Zibanejad
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Zibanejad
Cates
Last 7: Zibanejad 4-3 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
2
1
Zibanejad
Cates
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Zibanejad
Cates
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Zibanejad
Cates
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zibanejad
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (591)
44.2% (566)
+9.6%
Power Play
47.4% (38)
44.0% (84)
+3.4%
Penalty Kill
43.6% (117)
50.0% (38)
-6.4%
On even strength, Zibanejad has a +9.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Zibanejad is 51.6% vs left-shot opponents (546).
Zibanejad shoots right. Cates is 46.2% vs right-shot opponents (251).
Home / Away
Zibanejad
Cates
Home
48.2% (307)
45.1% (350)
Away
54.4% (439)
43.8% (338)
By Period
Zibanejad
Cates
P1
54.0%
46.8%
P2
51.0%
46.5%
P3
50.6%
40.8%
OT
55.6%
20.0%
Final 5 min
55.2%
41.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zibanejad
46.0%▼
54.0%
51.9%
Cates
56.0%▲
46.5%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 16:13 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 05:10 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 02:37 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 13:14 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 19:24 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 16:36 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 07:49 | Offensive | Noah Cates |