Scouting Report
Mika Zibanejad holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Zibanejad on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zibanejad 51.6% vs Cates 45.5% (+6.9%)
H2H factor
Zibanejad leads 9-4 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Zibanejad 60.4%
Defensive zone
Zibanejad 87.5%
Neutral zone
Zibanejad 80.0%
Result
Mika Zibanejad favored at 76.8%
76.8%
23.2%
Zibanejad
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
4
(13 meetings)
9
4
Zibanejad
Cates
Last 10: Zibanejad 8-2 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Zibanejad
Cates
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
4
1
Zibanejad
Cates
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
3
1
Zibanejad
Cates
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zibanejad
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (770)
45.4% (712)
+8.0%
Power Play
46.2% (39)
42.2% (102)
+4.0%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (141)
44.7% (47)
+0.0%
On even strength, Zibanejad has a +8.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Zibanejad is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (697).
Zibanejad shoots right. Cates is 47.5% vs right-shot opponents (320).
Home / Away
Zibanejad
Cates
Home
49.0% (429)
46.3% (423)
Away
54.1% (521)
43.6% (438)
By Period
Zibanejad
Cates
P1
53.0%
46.3%
P2
51.1%
47.1%
P3
51.0%
42.1%
OT
60.0%
18.2%
Final 5 min
56.5%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zibanejad
50.0%▼
51.5%
51.8%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2026 | 3 | 15:28 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 9, 2026 | 3 | 12:31 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 9, 2026 | 2 | 15:27 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 9, 2026 | 2 | 03:54 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 9, 2026 | 1 | 00:30 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 07:28 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 16:13 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 05:10 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 02:37 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 13:14 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 19:24 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 16:36 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 07:49 | Offensive | Noah Cates |