Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Zibanejad on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Zibanejad wins 53.0% vs left-shot opponents — Stastny shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zibanejad 52.2% vs Stastny 55.4% (-4.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stastny 75.1%
Defensive zone
Stastny 57.9%
Neutral zone
Stastny 72.0%
Result
Paul Stastny favored at 62.2%
37.8%
62.2%
Zibanejad
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Zibanejad
Stastny
Last 8: Zibanejad 5-3 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Zibanejad
Stastny
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
4
2
Zibanejad
Stastny
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zibanejad
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (955)
59.2% (370)
-5.2%
Power Play
55.6% (243)
40.9% (44)
+14.7%
Penalty Kill
35.0% (140)
51.7% (58)
-16.7%
On penalty kill, Stastny has a +16.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Zibanejad is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,033).
Zibanejad shoots right. Stastny is 58.6% vs right-shot opponents (186).
Home / Away
Zibanejad
Stastny
Home
55.2% (656)
57.7% (215)
Away
49.6% (682)
55.6% (257)
By Period
Zibanejad
Stastny
P1
56.3%
57.7%
P2
50.0%
54.2%
P3
51.2%
57.7%
OT
52.6%
60.0%
Final 5 min
47.9%
57.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zibanejad
50.0%▼
51.5%
52.3%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
56.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2022 | 3 | 17:53 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Apr 19, 2022 | 3 | 14:23 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Apr 19, 2022 | 3 | 00:08 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Apr 19, 2022 | 2 | 14:41 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Apr 19, 2022 | 2 | 07:38 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Apr 19, 2022 | 2 | 07:31 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Apr 19, 2022 | 1 | 15:07 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 6, 2022 | 3 | 08:07 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |