Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Zibanejad on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Zibanejad wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zibanejad 51.6% vs Stamkos 54.6% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 80.9%
Defensive zone
Zibanejad 66.3%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 59.5%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 71.4%
28.6%
71.4%
Zibanejad
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Zibanejad
Stamkos
Last 9: Zibanejad 5-4 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
3
2
Zibanejad
Stamkos
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Zibanejad
Stamkos
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zibanejad
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (770)
56.1% (342)
-2.7%
Power Play
46.2% (39)
53.3% (92)
-7.1%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (141)
62.5% (8)
-17.8%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +17.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Zibanejad is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (253).
Zibanejad shoots right. Stamkos is 51.3% vs right-shot opponents (117).
Home / Away
Zibanejad
Stamkos
Home
49.0% (429)
53.4% (208)
Away
54.1% (521)
57.7% (234)
By Period
Zibanejad
Stamkos
P1
53.0%
55.6%
P2
51.1%
52.8%
P3
51.0%
59.1%
OT
60.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
56.5%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zibanejad
50.0%▼
51.5%
51.8%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 15:20 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 13:15 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 11:07 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 18:25 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 13:41 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 10:54 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 06:41 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 12:11 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |