Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Minten 48.5% vs Backlund 49.7% (-1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Minten 82.8%
Defensive zone
Backlund 72.5%
Neutral zone
Minten 60.6%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 56.7%
43.3%
56.7%
Minten
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Minten
Backlund
Last 7: Minten 2-5 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Minten
2
0
Minten
Backlund
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
5
Minten
Backlund
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Minten
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (603)
50.1% (891)
-0.5%
Power Play
45.8% (48)
53.1% (64)
-7.3%
Penalty Kill
32.6% (43)
47.8% (278)
-15.2%
On penalty kill, Backlund has a +15.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Minten is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (446).
Minten shoots left. Backlund is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (871).
Home / Away
Minten
Backlund
Home
51.6% (322)
48.1% (580)
Away
45.4% (372)
51.1% (653)
By Period
Minten
Backlund
P1
44.9%
45.1%
P2
46.6%
54.7%
P3
52.1%
49.0%
OT
83.3%
46.2%
Final 5 min
46.7%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Minten
46.0%▼
49.5%
48.3%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 19:31 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 13:49 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 09:59 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 07:38 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 00:53 | Offensive | Fraser Minten |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 00:47 | Offensive | Fraser Minten |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 2 | 18:03 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |