Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 48.5% vs Cates 45.1% (+3.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backlund 57.6%
Defensive zone
Backlund 69.4%
Neutral zone
Backlund 57.6%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 62.3%
62.3%
37.7%
Backlund
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Backlund
Cates
Last 5: Backlund 3-2 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
0
Backlund
Cates
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Backlund
Cates
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Backlund
Cates
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (1,032)
46.7% (912)
+3.7%
Power Play
52.3% (107)
33.9% (56)
+18.4%
Penalty Kill
40.6% (313)
35.0% (137)
+5.6%
On power play, Backlund has a +18.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Backlund is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (1,014).
Backlund shoots left. Cates is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (767).
Home / Away
Backlund
Cates
Home
48.7% (749)
46.1% (521)
Away
48.1% (703)
43.3% (584)
By Period
Backlund
Cates
P1
50.4%
48.0%
P2
50.1%
42.3%
P3
45.8%
44.3%
OT
30.8%
31.3%
Final 5 min
50.5%
42.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
48.4%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2025 | 2 | 08:55 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 1 | 09:32 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 3 | 18:36 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 2 | 10:17 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 2 | 10:12 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |