Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +18.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 49.7% vs Ostlund 36.5% (+18.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ostlund 57.5%
Defensive zone
Backlund 92.3%
Neutral zone
Backlund 69.3%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 87.7%
87.7%
12.3%
Backlund
Ostlund
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Backlund
Ostlund
Last 5: Backlund 3-2 Ostlund
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
3
1
Backlund
Ostlund
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ostlund
0
1
Backlund
Ostlund
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Ostlund
Edge
Even Strength
50.1% (891)
32.2% (261)
+17.9%
Power Play
53.1% (64)
11.1% (9)
+42.0%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (278)
33.3% (3)
+14.5%
On power play, Backlund has a +42.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ostlund shoots left. Backlund is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (871).
Backlund shoots left. Ostlund is 28.7% vs left-shot opponents (167).
Home / Away
Backlund
Ostlund
Home
48.1% (580)
37.3% (142)
Away
51.1% (653)
25.2% (131)
By Period
Backlund
Ostlund
P1
45.1%
34.0%
P2
54.7%
32.6%
P3
49.0%
27.4%
Final 5 min
47.2%
23.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
49.7%
Ostlund
46.0%▲
34.5%
31.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 19, 2025 | 3 | 14:42 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 3 | 07:41 | Defensive | Noah Ostlund |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 3 | 07:34 | Neutral | Noah Ostlund |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 2 | 11:39 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 1 | 02:39 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |