Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.7% vs 49.6%). Look for Backlund on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 49.7% vs Kozak 49.7% (+0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kozak 50.1%
Defensive zone
Backlund 62.5%
Neutral zone
Backlund 53.3%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 52.0%
52.0%
48.0%
Backlund
Kozak
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Backlund
Kozak
Last 5: Backlund 3-2 Kozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Backlund
Kozak
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
2
1
Backlund
Kozak
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Kozak
Edge
Even Strength
50.1% (891)
49.3% (294)
+0.8%
Power Play
53.1% (64)
60.0% (5)
-6.9%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (278)
50.0% (40)
-2.2%
On power play, Kozak has a +6.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kozak shoots left. Backlund is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (871).
Backlund shoots left. Kozak is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (239).
Home / Away
Backlund
Kozak
Home
48.1% (580)
45.5% (145)
Away
51.1% (653)
52.6% (194)
By Period
Backlund
Kozak
P1
45.1%
53.4%
P2
54.7%
50.0%
P3
49.0%
44.3%
Final 5 min
47.2%
44.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
49.7%
Kozak
50.0%▬
49.0%
49.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 19, 2025 | 3 | 10:02 | Neutral | Tyson Kozak |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 3 | 09:50 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 2 | 10:21 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 2 | 02:17 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 2 | 01:52 | Offensive | Tyson Kozak |