Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.0% vs 48.6%). Look for Backlund on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 49.0% vs Kozak 48.8% (+0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backlund 60.6%
Defensive zone
Backlund 51.0%
Neutral zone
Backlund 56.1%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 57.9%
57.9%
42.1%
Backlund
Kozak
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Backlund
Kozak
Last 5: Backlund 3-2 Kozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Backlund
Kozak
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
2
1
Backlund
Kozak
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Kozak
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (13,410)
48.3% (431)
+1.4%
Power Play
51.6% (1,336)
62.5% (8)
-10.9%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (2,446)
48.9% (45)
-4.9%
On power play, Kozak has a +10.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kozak shoots left. Backlund is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (10,953).
Backlund shoots left. Kozak is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (322).
Home / Away
Backlund
Kozak
Home
49.7% (8,565)
47.6% (229)
Away
48.3% (8,632)
49.4% (255)
By Period
Backlund
Kozak
P1
48.5%
54.4%
P2
50.3%
45.7%
P3
48.4%
45.7%
Final 5 min
48.3%
45.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Kozak
50.0%▬
49.0%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 19, 2025 | 3 | 10:02 | Neutral | Tyson Kozak |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 3 | 09:50 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 2 | 10:21 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 2 | 02:17 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 2 | 01:52 | Offensive | Tyson Kozak |