Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Granlund 49.8% vs Sturm 54.0% (-5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Granlund 82.7%
Defensive zone
Granlund 50.9%
Neutral zone
Granlund 63.7%
Result
Mikael Granlund favored at 63.6%
63.6%
36.4%
Granlund
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Granlund
Sturm
Last 5: Granlund 1-4 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Granlund
Sturm
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
3
Granlund
Sturm
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Granlund
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
50.2% (562)
55.2% (277)
-5.0%
Penalty Kill
31.3% (64)
54.7% (95)
-23.4%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +23.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Granlund is 49.4% vs left-shot opponents (520).
Granlund shoots left. Sturm is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (254).
Home / Away
Granlund
Sturm
Home
53.6% (332)
54.3% (175)
Away
46.8% (434)
55.8% (197)
By Period
Granlund
Sturm
P1
50.0%
58.8%
P2
50.6%
53.5%
P3
48.9%
53.1%
OT
45.5%
100.0%
Final 5 min
52.1%
55.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Granlund
56.0%▬
55.5%
49.7%
Sturm
54.0%▼
57.0%
55.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 2026 | 3 | 19:01 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 14, 2026 | 3 | 17:51 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 14, 2026 | 3 | 17:30 | Offensive | Mikael Granlund |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 3 | 08:09 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 1 | 11:04 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |