Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +11.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Granlund wins 45.3% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Granlund 45.7% vs Sturm 55.2% (-11.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Granlund 78.9%
Defensive zone
Granlund 60.5%
Neutral zone
Granlund 69.5%
Result
Mikael Granlund favored at 65.1%
65.1%
34.9%
Granlund
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Granlund
Sturm
Last 8: Granlund 2-6 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Granlund
Sturm
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
2
3
Granlund
Sturm
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
2
Granlund
Sturm
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Granlund
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
46.8% (295)
56.1% (716)
-9.3%
Power Play
38.5% (26)
67.7% (31)
-29.2%
Penalty Kill
36.5% (63)
51.1% (133)
-14.6%
On power play, Sturm has a +29.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Granlund is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (254).
Granlund shoots left. Sturm is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (592).
Home / Away
Granlund
Sturm
Home
47.8% (178)
55.6% (412)
Away
41.7% (206)
56.0% (468)
By Period
Granlund
Sturm
P1
44.7%
59.6%
P2
42.9%
52.0%
P3
45.7%
55.5%
OT
50.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
39.8%
56.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Granlund
52.0%▲
48.5%
44.5%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2023 | 2 | 11:30 | Defensive | Mikael Granlund |
| Feb 23, 2023 | 2 | 08:05 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 8, 2022 | 2 | 12:13 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 8, 2022 | 1 | 08:53 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 8, 2022 | 1 | 05:44 | Defensive | Mikael Granlund |
| Oct 8, 2022 | 1 | 05:24 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 7, 2022 | 1 | 17:50 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 7, 2022 | 1 | 08:36 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |